A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Friday, December 16, 2005

Great Expectations

Since the news is slooooow it seems as good a time as any to take a look back at Carlos Beltran's season and some pre season predictions.
           AVG     OBP     SLG    HR    SB
Me .290 .390 .560 32 40
PECOTA .280 .377 .508 26 30
ZiPS .278 .373 .504 29 38
Marcels .282 .363 .520 28 32
James .285 .368 .524 31 38
Actual .266 .330 .479 16 17
Of course I do not think there is any way he repeats that 2005 performance this upcoming year, but I do not think anyone really thought he would not top twenty homers and not top twenty stolen bases. His BB/PA was the lowest since 2001 and the first time since 2003 that it was below .120. His IsoP was the lowest it has been since 2000 and the first time it was below .200 since 2001. He had the lowest SB% of his career and saw the least amount of pitches per plate appearance since 2001.

I think it was fair to assume his numbers would take some sort of a hit at Shea, but 78% of his at bats were as a left handed batter and we all know that Shea is just not as tough on lefties as righties. So the drop in production, while expected, should not have been as precipitous as it was from moving from his old parks. The thing that confused me the most was his plate discipline. You can make the case that with the Royals he was the best hitter on a bad team and therefore pitched around, but he continued to take walks when he was moved to the Astros with some pretty good hitters behind him. That should have translated a bit better especially with Cliff Floyd batting behind him.

He did have leg problems all year that contributed to his speed game, but anyone that has played a sport with an aggravating quad/hamstring/groin injury will tell you that it affects everything. That includes just standing at the plate an taking a swing and throwing a ball. You feel uncomfortable and start over compensating in areas until you are completely out of whack. The guy oozes talent and flashes some serious power on some homeruns. Last year he hit a shot off of Julian Tavarez in the playoffs that not many people could have hit.

"Barry Bonds is the best hitter in baseball. I don't think he could have hit that pitch," Tavarez said. "I can't believe he hit it."

That was the only homer he gave up during the playoffs and one of only seven the entire year, including the playoffs. The ability is there to be a special player in this town. There is also no doubt in my mind he can hit thirty as a Met year in and year out, but whether or not he will obviously remains to be seen. Omar has put him in a better position to relax and play his game. Hopefully a healthy Carlos Beltran with a better supporting cast will take his place as one of the elite in the game.

* * *

  • I was drafted by the A's too.

    Tom McCarthy sounds like a good guy and I hope he can fill those big shoes left by Cohen.

  • Mark Grudzielanek is headed to the Royals along with Dougie Eyechart. I'm fine with Grudz no longer an option because that means Kaz is closer to getting yet another shot. Also, if Douggie thought the Mets situation was bad, wait until he his wallowing in last place heading for 100 losses.

    Anyone want to place bets that this right side of the infield has the most letters in their names combined in the history of baseball?

  • Braden Looper signs for three years and $13.5 million with the Cardinals. Ultimately the Mets will probably sign Taverez essentially trading relievers. Looper is definitely a solid set-up guy for the Cardinals.

  • Hernandez, 41, went 8-6 with four saves and a 2.58 ERA in 67 relief appearances with the New York Mets last year. He did not allow a run in 55 of his 67 appearances and held right-handed batters to a .213 average while pitching for his seventh major league team.

    Tough one to lose. I am definitely curious to see if he can replicate last year's season which was so out of line with the previous four seasons and I still think the Mets should have offered him arbitration. I can understand Piazza and Looper, but not so much this one.

  • Nicey nice. Wright is good.

  • Pricks...

    One high-ranking official said this week, "There's no question the Mets are the best team in that [NL East] division. So go ahead, say they're favorites. Say they're the best team in the whole league. Put the pressure on them, for once."

    Put the pressure on them for once? I would like to point out that yes, they do have pressure, but not a $200 million payroll type of pressure. Klap says it wasn't said spitefully or sarcastically, but it is hard for that to not sound negative. How about they just mind their own business and concentrate on actually making a move.
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