A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Fact Checkers Wanted?

As DG pointed out to me the other day, Dayn Perry just laid out an example of how to be a complete and utter idiot.

If you take a gander at the Spring Training statistics from any year, you'll find some interesting things.

As of Wednesday, for instance, we find that Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is batting only .125, while the Nationals' Shawn Hill has a 2.00 ERA after three starts. So may we rightly surmise that Reyes' career is over and that Hill will win the NL Cy Young this season? Of course not.

However, some of the early statistical goofiness we're seeing on each and every team speaks to a larger point: Spring Training statistics don't mean much.

Despite this fact, many fans and even many managers and front-office "deciders" treat spring numbers as though they are reliable harbingers of doom or glory. Needless to say, this is a mistake. Cactus and Grapefruit league numbers, in point of fact, are wildly unreliable and have little bearing on future performance.

Well, his article might have a point if the real deal Jose B. Reyes was actually batting a buck and quarter, but it was Jose A. Reyes. The catcher of course and not the best player in the universe. Of course people make mistakes, but something like this is rather ridiculous because Dayn Perry writes for one of the biggest sports sites and he is writing about one of the best players.

But enough of Perry's stupidity, let's talk about Jose B. Reyes. Buster Olney picked him to be the NL MVP as he stated in his blog and I doubt that he will be the only one. In fact, a full year of the new and improved Reyes with a bit more power is downright scary. The only thing standing between him being the favorite for NL MVP in my estimation and not being the favorite is a disappointing showing by the Mets this season.

* * *

  • Rick Peterson is at it again.

    "He's just got to understand there are no more stuffed animals to win in the big leagues," he said. "You have to make pitches. Rearing back and throwing as hard as you can toward home plate is no value. It actually has a negative value."

  • Just what I was waiting for! Validation from Johnny Damon!

    "I thought Schoeneweis was the best left-hander out of the pen in our division," Damon said. "He did not give up homers, he knew how to pitch and he's tough. The Mets made a real good signing."

  • Chan Ho is surely making a strong point for Mike Pelfrey to be included into the big league rotation.

    Or in the words of Danny....

    Should we let Chan Ho Park know that he can start locating his fastball any day now?

    In fact, the situation is getting to the point where Billy Wagner is offering his services to be the fifth starter.

    "Three innings, three pitches," he said to himself. Three and three might equal five, in Wagner's case. It was pure fantasy, and hardly one he fancied.

  • We've been riding Jake pretty hard about Josh Hamilton. But maybe...just maybe...he'll have the last laugh.

    "Josh Hamilton," proclaimed longtime Baltimore Orioles advance scout Deacon Jones, "is the story of this spring training. This guy is not to be believed. I saw him the other night, with that power, that bat speed, that plate discipline and then that throwing arm and I said: ‘Whoaaaa. What is this? This guy might be the best I've ever seen.' At one point, I got up and yelled to him: ‘This game ain't this damn easy!' I never saw him before, but now I know why he was the No. 1 pick in '99. This guy's a real player."

    Yankee VP of scouting Gene Michael, sitting across the table from Jones, nodded in agreement.

    "He's legitimate five tools," Michael said. "It's all there and he hasn't lost anything from what I've seen. The Reds got themselves a tremendous player, but it's always going to be a question. The drugs are always going to be there, waiting to get to him again."

    Scary that someone can possess that much talent.

  • Why must Wendy's have a culinary delight as delicious as the 4-Alarm Spicy Chicken Sandwich and only have it for a limited time?



    Blogger Itsmetsforme said...

    I'll take what's behind door B. B Reyes that is.

    what i like about your account of the dayn (of the brain dead) perry is that you refused to link to his article.

    Well i went there again and here's what I found:

    "If you take a gander at the Spring Training statistics from any year, you'll find some interesting things.

    Shawn Hill is off to a great start, but will it carry over to the regular season? (Bob Jordan / Associated Press)
    The Nationals' Shawn HIll, for instance, has a 2.00 ERA after three starts. So may we rightly surmise that Hill is destined for a Cy Young campaign? Of course not."

    anyone want to look up Shawn B. Hill's stats?

    1:12 AM

    Anonymous MikeinSpaininLA said...


    Sorry for the layoff on comments. I've been keeping up with the blog, though. Great stuff as always.

    Got a question for you. What do you think of the Pirates' Jose Castillo? It seems like the Pirates have soured on him, and the guy has TONS of potential - he's big, agile, hits with power to all fields...the guy is waiting to break out. Omar should pounce on this guy for 2nd base...

    1:26 AM

    Anonymous Dandy DG McGee said...

    Beginning to see talk of the Mets looking for another starter before the start of the season, but I for one have transplanted my worries towards the pen which promises to be shaky over the first 50 games until Mota and Dirty (who may be back earlier) can help calm things down. I wouldn't mind seeing the Mets go after a decent reliever though it looks like starters or relievers, the price is going to be steep.

    Noble says that Milledge is still seen as expendable, but that will change if Shawn Green hits as low as Shawn Hill has been pitching this Spring - and that's clearly a possibility! I don't know if it is realistic to expect Carlos Gomez to be ready next season, and obviously, F-Mart is at least two years off. With two free agent outfielders next year, it makes a lot of sense to hold onto Lastings unless we can get a seriously high quality return. His Spring has brought back his trade value, and I really get the impression that he's going to rake this year.

    Perry took about 12 hours to re-post his piece without the José reference, but don't they have fact checkers? I was really bummed to not find an email link for Perry as I was going to let go. Ask me and Fox has really tumbled coverage-wise this winter; Rosenthal was all over everything last year, but they've been out-hustled this winter!

    Hamilton is for real, though he'll come back to earth. It's next year that will really be interesting. But here is yet another reason to fold the Dumb Rays and redistribute their players! As you said the other day, just a badly run organization. Their crowning acheivement in how many years of existence(?) is fleecing Duquette for Scott Kazmir. And I still think his most productive years will occur elsewhere!

    Not big on fast food. Usually when I get a taste for it, it's about time to go the other way and start a diet, but I did take my son to MacDough (as it's called here in France - MacDoughnalds, spelled phonetically to allow for the accent is just too long!) on Saturday. Then I saw that Wendy's commercial on a MLBTV broadcast and started to salivate. I'm starting a diet, pronto!

    5:06 AM

    Anonymous Danny said...

    I just think its funny that these writers talk about Milledge and his "value", as if he is only a trading chip. Um, one of our corner OFs is fragile, and the other could very easily suck this year. I am pretty sure that Milledge has a chance to help the Mets this year. I mean, if the Twins say, hey, take this Santana guy, we really want Milledge because Hunter is leaving after this year, then ok... For proper value, I will trade almost anyone. But Milledge is much more than just a trading chip.

    Seriously, if Chan Ho Park is nervous and pressing at PSL, what is he going to do at a screaming Shea Stadium when the actual season starts? I try not to put too much stock into what these guys say because 97% of it is BS, but that was not the explanation I wanted to hear.

    I have mad love for Jose Ariel Reyes. Guy only had 8 ABs! He probably goes to Double-A with Nickeas?

    8:09 AM

    Anonymous benny said...

    Jose Reyes is probably going to be the 2nd most impactful and valuable player in the major leagues this season. MVP? Who knows, some of the writers are dumbasses but he's going to put up sick numbers.

    I hate it when Johnny Damon speaks. He sounds like pure dumbass

    I'm drinking the Josh Hamilton kool aid too. I must admit I drafted him last night. There is a difference however, it was an NL Only Keeper with 5 OF spots. I had the 5th pick, got Utley. Reyes almost fell to me.

    Mike, the tastiest and bestest burgers are always only available for limited time. Fucking assholes. Damn Corporate America.

    Mike in Spain, I'm actually going to be in Spain from April 7th-13th. I'm going to be in Madrid and Barcelona.

    8:22 AM

    Blogger metdynasty said...

    Miledge won't be traded for anything other than a good young pitcher whom the Mets will have control of for at least a few years.

    It's great to see both Schoe and Feliciano can retire lefties and righties in ST so far. Feliciano still has that great command. It's very likely that he will repeat his 06 performance or maybe be even better. Schoe doesn't give up homers. He can be the Bradford of 07 for us, if he is properly used. A true stopper.

    I still think among Park, Sele and Sosa one of them will step up and help this team. There is no need to panic now and do something stupid. Pelfrey is better than all of them at this point, but I hope they don't use him for more than 150 innings this year. Got to be very careful with your young pitching prospects.

    One thing I am concerned about is the lack of contact at the bottom of the lineup, namely Green and Valentin. I don't care about Green's power resurgence, if there is any truth to that all at. What drives me crazy is that he and Valentin are so bad at moving the runners. I see them constantly fail to make contact when a runner is at 3rd with less than 2 outs. Those runs are huge in a short series. I am still pissed about Valentin's strikeout in the bottom of the 6th in game 7. When you let the opposing pitcher off the hook, it boosts his confidence. Those little things swing the momentum and cost you the game, possibly the series. I really hope they do something about that.

    Is it just me or does Wagner talk too much? Why is he still talking so much trash about the Phillies and their fans, going on and on about how he was not loved over there. You are a met for more than a year already. Let it go.

    9:11 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Don’t give me too much credit. DG sent me the text, but no link, but said the verbiage was changed in his article when he got his 1,000,000th email telling him how dumb he is.

    anyone want to look up Shawn B. Hill's stats?


    MikeinSpain! Good to hear from you. Jose Castillo would be a good gamble and Littlefield is not a lost cause to work with. He’s not afraid to make trades and should get a phone call. I wonder if some high ceiling, unrefined, nearly ready guy like Vargas could be involved.

    I’d trade Milledge, but only for a stud. What he’s done this pre-season is gain some of his luster stats…yeah…spring stats…blah…blah, but it was more about attitude than production with his star falling. Whether it’s true or not, the Mets have the perception that he is grown up a bit. Not sure they can get any pitching though since people are holding to that for dear life. Unless the A’s want to give up Haren for a package centered around Milledge +, then I’m not seeing what could possible be done. Not many guys are available. Besides, I still see him as an impact player with an immense ceiling. I’d rather keep him unless they get something really good.

    I don’t eat fast food often either. However, the 4-Alarm Spicy Chicken was a must have for me. I’m typically a healthy eater who does not approved 1,000 calories per meal. I need to keep this boyish figure somehow!

    Danny, I’d have to agree with you on Park. He’s been bad this spring, but has shown the ability is there. He got a late start and is a reasonably known quantity. Again, 6+ innings, 4.60 ERA, and 10 or 13 wins on this team from the five spot, 15 quality starts….I don’t think he is going to be as bad during the season as he is now.

    Benny is drinking the Hamilton Kool-Aid too?

    The Arch Deluxe with it’s circular piece of bacon is the one that got away for me. McDonald’s inexplicably ended that burgers short run back in the early-mid 90’s. It was their answer to the whopper. Not sure why it’s gone, but it is missed.

    In terms of burgers….the White Mana in Jersey City is the place to be. Open 24 hours a day, quick, and cheap. All traits I like in burgers and girlfriends.

    9:28 AM

    Blogger Kenny said...

    I never eat fast food either, but couldn't resist when I saw the 4 Alarm commercial. Fucking incredible, it was.

    That sandwich makes me want to give up being awesome and move towards being a lazy fat ass. I could eat five of those things a day.

    10:47 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    That sandwich makes me want to give up being awesome and move towards being a lazy fat ass.

    It’s early in the year so we have to keep that in mind, but that was easily the quote of the year. Admittedly, it wasn’t as hot as it should have been for being touted as a 4-Alamer, but I’ll let them pass. The populous is soft these days and cannot handle some heat. It’s reprehensible as to what these places call spicy.

    Schoe is obviously going to be big for this teams since Damon said so. And when someone as well spoken and intelligent as him speaks, you have no choice but to listen and heed his words. Ultimately, I don’t mind the signing. The years are still questionable though. When I though he brought him in as another lefty option if Heilman was traded it made more sense, but whatever. Small gripe.

    RE: Pelfrey…I think they have 160 as a limit for him during the regular season which is why they want him in New Orleans throwing 75 pitches a day or something. They are certainly going to take it easy with him so he’s fresh at the end of the year and I do think Verlander is who they are looking long and hard at. He simply doesn’t have that many innings under his belt and they want to take it slow.

    Valentin could be an unmitigated disaster this year. He’s someone to keep an eye on.

    Wagner’s jawing doesn’t bother me. If anything, he seems like he is enjoying himself and that is always a good thing. Nothing he says is mean-spirited either.

    11:12 AM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Wagner's smack talk doesn't bother me either. It's refreshing to have that animosity with a division rival. We seemed to have been missing that over the past few years.

    I'm not getting into a tizzy about Pelfrey starting the season in New Orleans. The fifth starter is not a big deal in April. Duque's nagging oldman injuries is a definite concern of mine. I can definitely see Pelfrey and Milledge recalled sooner than later this season. I have a feeling LM will have a solid year for the Mets (or another team). I hope he takes his anticipated demotion to AAA well. He seems to have matured over the off-season. I hope he doesn't regress mentally.


    "He's just got to understand there are no more stuffed animals to win in the big leagues" - Peterson describing Burgos.

    Classic jedi-speak from the jacket.


    11:55 AM

    Anonymous Scott said...

    I have this aweful recurring dream. I am listening to WFAN when it is anounced that Jose Reyes has been dealt to Cleveland for Roberto Alomar. There is a tightness in my chest, spasms in my legs...then boom I wake up screaming! Slowly I remember that the bid bad wolf is gone and Uncle Omar is in charge...PHEW! Damn I wish you hadn't written about that rumor!!!

    Well Mike let me answer two questions you ask in one little capsule...Dayn Perry is a prick and is also in charge of setting the Wendy's menu! I hope you wake up tomorrow morning drenched in sweat and screaming "No Dayn, DON"T TRADE THE 4-ALARM SPICY CHICEN SANDWICH TO SUBWAY FOR JARED!!!"-Now you know how I feel.

    12:08 PM

    Anonymous Scott said...

    I don't know if anyone here plays worl of warcraft but Benny might have to take legal action against them! They have a bad guy character called BENNY BLAANCO!!! Yes it is spelled slightly differantly but the intent is obvious! BEnny get a good lawyer and sue baby!

    12:10 PM

    Anonymous Farva said...

    IS Heidi Jones the hottest woman on TV? For those who don't know her she is the weather woman on channel 7.

    Seems a bit bitchy...just how I like em.

    12:29 PM

    Anonymous benny said...

    Benny is drinking the Hamilton Kool-Aid too?

    I almost have to. I drafted him but again, it was an NL Only draft, haha.

    I'm not a big fan of World of Warcraft. And now I have another reason not to like it. Benny Blanco isn't a bad guy! I'm a good guy!

    Metdynasty, Wagner is a silly redneck, of course he's going to talk, of course he's going to have a big mouth.

    1:06 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Milledge has the ability to hit 15 homers…hit .270….steal 20…and throw quite a few out. I think he’d be more than solid at a very young age.

    Scott…those are some serious dreams. You might want to go talk to someone. Long term damage could from dreams like that my friend. The wall between your reality and make believe is probably dangerously close to being torn down.

    That explains it….Dayn Perry is in cahoots with the reverse vampires in conjunction with the Ran Corporation and do in fact run the Wendy’s menu. We are through the looking glass here people.

    I think Benny could get sued for using the name….

    Farva, I must check her out. For some reason I have cooled on Kate from Lost and am actively looking for replacements.

    1:51 PM

    Anonymous Dangling DG said...

    I think Benny could sue for using the name! I mean, it's his; he earned it!

    Zoe's Double Hex, Manchester, Vermont. Best burgers I know. Plus it's VT, where no drawling fake cowpoke is secretly drawing up plans to start Armegeddon so the big messiah man will get here sooner. And you look out at the mountains, and it's quiet. You want more?

    Oh, and Paris just doesn't have that many good hamburgers. Lots of retro diners, or at least there used to be. You know, Route 66 and all that crap! Tex-Mex was hot for a while before we elected (wait, we didn't the first time!) the dumb cowpoke.

    Second base promises to be interesting. I agree that I'm not confident on Valentin. Ruben Gotay had surprisingly good pop in the couple of times I saw him bat this spring.

    Pelfrey threw a lot of innnings in college. He can throw 170-175 max this year.

    2:10 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    DG...Since I go snowboarding that Double Hex WILL happen. Mark my words...it might have to wait till next year since the season is on it’s last legs, but if they get some snow early April, I will partake in the madness.

    Anyone try out the flamethrower thingy at Dairy Queen?

    2:30 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    Well worth it, but remember that it's the Double Hex as there are other Zoe's establishment in the town.

    Plus, drop a line. I don't live there but am pretty close if I'm in the States!

    3:11 PM

    Blogger Itsmetsforme said...

    did the arch deluxe "keep the hot side hot and the cold side cold"? Does anyone else rememebr that? What a gimmick!

    I was just dicussing this with my wife the other night, wondering why something that seemed so important at the time (to MickeyDs and humanity at large) could be dropped so fast, as though, in fact, it was on the cold side.

    In LA, we don't need no freakin badges. We have "In and Out" burger.

    To be blunt, Kate has the worst body on Lost, outside of Hurley. That's why you cooled on her. It's only natural.

    today's fun fact.:
    According to Steve Popper : "And he was rewarded with a contract worth $3.8 million this season, with an option for 2008 that vests with 400 plate appearances."

    He's talking about the Stash. Jinkies, Velma.

    3:32 PM

    Anonymous benny said...

    oh shit, DG, you live in France?
    Very nice. I'm going to be in France next month, I'm going to be there from the end of April to May 5th, should be fun.

    3:34 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    Istmets: if that's a D Boon reference, more of my favorite things have ended up on this blog!

    Valentin got a fat one for this year, and I have my doubts. But he is batting 8th.

    Benny, I'm not born and bred (unless Long Dieland is part of the 5th Republic) but ended up here longer than I ever imagined. I've now been out of the U.S. for two Bush presidencies and am hoping there won't be a third.

    (But VT is still home quand meme!)

    3:48 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    Istmets: if that's a D Boon reference, more of my favorite things have ended up on this blog!

    Valentin got a fat one for this year, and I have my doubts. But he is batting 8th.

    Benny, I'm not born and bred (unless Long Dieland is part of the 5th Republic) but ended up here longer than I ever imagined. I've now been out of the U.S. for two Bush presidencies and am hoping there won't be a third.

    (But VT is still home quand meme!)

    3:48 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    Don't double posts win special awards, Mike?


    3:49 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    DG…I misread…Zoe’s Double Hex is the joint. I thought a place named Zoe’s has the Double Hex burger. Loud and clear.

    I’m not sure why the Arch Deluxe was taken down. I think there had to be a reason. It seemed to sell well and was a different burger from their already boring arsenal. They don’t appreciate much variety. Just slight variations on burgers with the exception of the signature Big Mac.

    In and Out Burger was a target of mine whilst visiting SF. Alas, our ‘tour guide’ had an entire week planned out with no chance of Mikey getting a simple burger.

    Carl Jr.’s was solid for those of you remember the pics I had last year of the delicious burgers.

    RE: Kate…no way man. No way. I’ve cooled on her since the layoff of lost. No other reason. She has also become slightly whiny.

    RE: Valentin’s vesting option….in the word’s or David Ortiz…Jose Valentin ain’t gettin no 400 at-bats.

    3:50 PM

    Blogger metdynasty said...

    "Wagner is a silly redneck"

    I wouldn't go that far, benny.

    I don't mind people bitching. I just don't like them bitching about the same thing over and over again.

    7:38 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    I don't like this idea of batting DWright 2nd. He has more RBI potential batting 5th. Plus keeping LoDuca in the two hole extends the strength of the Mets batting order over two full innings. LoDuca batting sixth just doesn't cut it.

    7:42 PM

    Anonymous benny bizzle said...

    Alright fine, maybe the "silly" part was a little over the top, sorry metdynasty.

    8:34 PM

    Blogger Coop said...

    Mike I like the Mana as much as the next guy, but you can't be too far away from a bathroom. I mean, you're better off eating it on the can. Kill two birds with one stone.

    And from what I remember - and I quote - you called the carl's jr (or was it hardees? one of those fat america places) breakfast burger "one tasty son of a bitch." I remember it because it made me laugh. Hard.

    I don't eat much fast food either...I am a vegetarian about 90% of the time. the other 10% is for sushi binges. But I do crave Egg mcMuffins sometimes.

    For any interested parties, My Summer Family should have its first posting tomorrow. in the words of Jose valentin...yeeeeeeeaaaaaahhhhhhh!

    8:58 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Coop....dare I say you went to far in regards to the Mana? Too much information comes to mind?

    I actually do not have many negative repercussions from the Mana and I'd eat breakfast lunch and dinner there if I could.


    DG....well put. I'm not overly concerned about him losing RBIs because he'll still hit a bunch and have a crazy average and BIG homer numbers. Remember what Soriano did RBI-wise from the one spot. With Reyes in front, he should be able to do better. 100 RBIs is not out of the question from that spot.

    9:40 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Oh, and it was Carl Jr's. It had beef, bacon, egg, hash browns, and cheese. I dream about it and it is inspiration for getting a bacon cheeseburger with a fried egg at the Mana. I've asked and I am the only one.

    9:41 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    100 ribs is fine, but batting fifth is 120 runs batted in.

    9:45 PM

    Anonymous jake said...

    i don't give a shit about where you people eat fast food!!! let's talk mets:

    has anyone seen pelfrey pitch much? judging from the box scores, he's giving up lots of hits but not many walks. are people hitting the ball hard or just squibbing grounders to holes?

    also, dg, wright would only bat second when lo duca sits, if ever.

    9:47 PM

    Anonymous jake said...

    also why no ks? i can understand less ks, but no ks? WTF? we don't need a 6'7' Wanger.

    9:49 PM

    Anonymous DG said...

    Jake, Pelf gave up a couple of bloop and broken bat hits. Obviously gave up two doubles in the first, and Roberts hit a hard single on him later, but on the whole he just busted the strike zone, threw about sixty-five to seventy pitches with only one k but no walks. He looked great. I think the k's will come in time, perhaps next year when you'd expect he'll work on adding a fourth pitch (perhaps the curve again).

    9:54 PM

    Anonymous jake said...

    thanks. its wierd cause he kd people in the minors.

    10:18 PM

    Blogger Coop said...

    Pelf actually looked pretty good...even Jose the Mack Daddy Valentin said so.

    Mike -- what, me??? Go too far??? Is that even possible?

    I could make it worse -- like what's the point of eating corn? You can just lick it and throw it in the toilet!

    Like my grandmother always said, dick and fart jokes are the way to make money in this world.

    10:57 PM

    Blogger metdynasty said...

    Pelfrey was good. I was glad to see him getting out of jam tonight. I was at Shea when he made his ML debut. He looks so much more mature now comparing to that outing. He was behind the count on a few hitters but he refused to give them free bases and made quality pitches. He looked like a veteran out there.

    He still needs to make progress on his off-speed stuff to increase the Ks. I am sure he will get there.

    Regarding who should bat 2nd, I know this much: it's actually a very complicated mathematical problem. I majored in Math in college and there are questions like this everyday in business, science and pretty much every aspect of life. Believe me, finding the optimum solution to maximize our offense production is no easy task because there are so many determining factors in this case. Common sense can only take you so far and it rarely leads you to the optimum solution. We don't even know if we had the best lineup possible last year. This year is even more complicated because of the addition of Alou and the continuous progress of Reyes and Wright. Willie is using the most common approach: simply try different combinations and observe the pros and cons. I believe baseball as a game can be improved dramatically when scientific management is used more systematically for questions like the lineup and even the positioning of the fielders. Advanced stats for evaluating talents and shift for lefties are merely the tip of the iceberg of what Mathematics can do for the game. I can't wait to see the day when MLB clubs start to hire mathematicians to help them make those lineup dicisions.

    11:04 PM

    Anonymous Mildred said...

    Well written article.

    6:02 PM


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