A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Monday, May 12, 2008

I Am A Believer!

Ryan Church is sporting an OPS+ of 144 so far this season and has been the Mets best hitter so far. David Wright is right behind with an OPS+ 0f 139, but it is undeniable that Church has been rather spectacular so far being great at the plate and being extremely solid in right field.

If you add in fielding and go by WARP1, Church is sporting a 2.1 vs. Wright's 1.8. Now I am not saying that Church is a better player than David, but he certainly is a very good ballplayer and far from a platoon player. Against lefties he has a .328/.391/.546 line vs. a .324/.405/.514 line against righties.

It is also certainly worth noting that Milledge is sporting an OPS+ of 75. While I think Milledge is going to be a tremendous ballplayer down the line, I have been resolute in the fact that Chruch will be much more helpful in 2008 and 2009 in getting the Mets a championship.

As far as Omar's other big moves, they have worked out pretty well this season. Johan has been very good, though not great, and Brian Schneider has been very solid and is giving the Mets more offensive value than Lastings Milledge is giving the Nats. All of that has me perplexed as to why the Mets are simply a .500 team. Given the current team that was in place and the fact that Omar's moves worked out so well, you would think the Mets would be far better than they have been so far.

We are at the point when it is not longer early. Enough of a sample size has gone by that you can start drawing some conclusions. Tampa is better than anyone could have expected, the Yankees young pitching woes are probably going to cost them a playoff spot, the Marlins are shockingly legit, St. Louis is surprisingly good, and the Mets are far better than this.

Given they added positively to a team that barely missed the playoffs and they still find themselves in the same spot, something needs to get looked at. The common thread between the two needs to be identified and dealt with. The mediocrity is frustrating because this team should be anything but mediocre.

* * *

  • Schoenweis is pretty good.

  • Castillo is down again. So far his four year deal looks like a bad thing. I am stopping short of saying disaster because he is not making all that much in the big scheme of baseball, but it is clearly ugly.

  • Delgado batting seventh is a positive sign for Willie showing his cognitive reasoning skills. Delgado may be a nice guy, but he is a bad hitter these days.

  • While Ollie has not been horrible, he certainly has not bee all that great. The good part is becoming more affordable, but the bad part is he is not pitching as good as the Mets need him to.

  • If there is anything positive to take out of here it is that Pelfrey is willing to change things up a bit.
  • Labels:

    35 Comments:

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Perez is a FA at the end of the year. Do we know what 'Type' he is? A? B?

    If he is, and Boras is still asking for an insane contract; plus the thining of the Minors after the Santana deal, I think I'd have to let OP go. If he's a Type A FA (a la Glavine) that nets you two First Round picks (well, 1 and a sandwich pick) combine that with the 3 we have this year, 6 First Round picks in two year isnt so bad.

    - Nokes

    10:51 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    He looks like a fringe A at this point unless he completely blows up.

    The 1st round picks will be nice for sure, but I just fear about the Mets own pitching depth. I mean, someone has to go out there, right?

    11:55 AM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    Mike, welcome back!

    You called it on Church. The evidence was there and I was a believer before the season started. I think this is a break out year for him and don't see this as a "Paganesque" hot streak. He has fast become one of my favorite players to watch.

    Does anyone else see Castillo's contract as being one of the chess moves Omar used to land Santana? Maybe I'm dilusional, but it sure makes it easier to swallow if so.

    Ollie is still worth a big contract if only for the entertainment value (the Pirates start excluded).

    12:39 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco said...

    "Keppinger really wasn't in the mix. Keppinger was kind of a long shot, and he's still kind of a long shot, but he's there."

    WIllie Randolph is such a douchebag. Keppinger basically did, in that 3 game series, what we all thought he could do, hit.

    I guess my Ryan Church prediction at the beginning of the season of 25 homeruns isn't too bad.

    The thing about Johan is that I'm excited for the summer when he turns into God. If you look at his career his april and may's have been HORRIBLE and not a Cy Young caliber pitcher and then for the summer he turns it on and is soo good he sports those 2 ERA's. His ERA might be likke 1 by the time the summer is over with his history.

    I don't know if I'd call the Marlins legit, talented but I don't think they should be considered legit. I don't think they could keep this up for a whole season. I mean remember when the Nationals were in first place until like July. If the Marlins finish higher than 4th, I'd be shocked.

    As much as I do not like Pelfrey I do see a difference. Even if it's not sowing in the final line, he's been getting better and smarter as the season goes on.

    Oh and Johnny Cueto still rocks my socks.

    1:15 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    funny you mention cueto benny... i need some info cause someone is willing to trade me him for ibanez. what's with all the homers and era? is he gonna be good the rest of the year? mike? anybody?

    jake

    1:21 PM

     
    Anonymous bennny said...

    look at his WHIP, despite that UGLY 5.91 ERA, his WHIP up until yesterday's game was 0.89!
    Now its at a decent 1.25, which is better than guys like John Maine (1.35) and is on par with Dice-K (1.21).
    Me personally, I think he's going to find his groove. Did yo usee him pitch? He's too good to keep up the bad performances.
    I think I'd do that trade.

    1:29 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I can't believe it has been two weeks. Between me being busy and the Mets being marginal, it was a cocktail for non-posting.

    RE: Castillo + Santana. Nope. $123 million reasons for Johan to be a Met.

    Benny, 25 homers for Church looks pretty spot on. I was expecting 20+ with some nice doubles, but this is great.

    I think the Marlins are solid. Very solid. Surprisingly solid.

    Cueto is rookie. You cannot bank on rookies. I'm sure 10 of 10 would have preferred Cueto over VOlquez this season.

    1:41 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    I don't want to say Volquez is doing it with smoke and mirrors because he's not, he's just good but he's been able to get out of trouble a couple of times.
    Volquez's ERA should be a little higher and Cueto's should be a little lower.


    Cueto is rookie. You cannot bank on rookies.


    Says the guy who drafts Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Manny Corpas, Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Evan Longoria, J.R. Towles, and Anthony Reyes. You don't seem to be banking on rookies or 2nd year players, haha.

    1:49 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    i guess i'll do it. ibanez is on my bench anyway.

    can i have some more free advice? would you trade away kemp for bedard?

    want to know what a killer fantasy lineup looks like?

    doumit, kotchman, bj, wright, m young, r church, c beltran, j hamilton, m kemp

    1:59 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    You want to see a balls deep fantasy lineup, check mine out.

    Babe Uggla is leading the charge.

    2:03 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    i don't have those priveledges anymore.

    kemp for bedard?

    2:05 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I guess the real question is, what do you think you need more?

    I'll do Kemp for Garland...I'll throw in Corpas as well.

    2:29 PM

     
    Anonymous tc said...

    Viva Church. He's the man.

    I feel like the problem with the Mets is for every step forward (win 2 of 3 from shitty teams) they take a step back and drop 2 of 3 to a better team (Braves, Dodgers -- though they were on fire when we got them).

    I like Cueto. I love Volquez. Straight animal in fantasy this year so far. Considering the Reds blow and are something like 8 games under .500, his numbers are even more eye-opening.

    Bedard for Kemp? I pull it -- especially if Beltran keeps raking ... and because Josh Hamilton is an RBI/HR beast in Texas. I think Bedard will right the ship of the M's score him some runs. And Torre seems to sit Kemp randomly too, and that annoys me.

    Let Perez go. Sign Sheets. Trust.

    The thing that annoys me with Show is that his career ERA is 4.97. What do fans expect him to be considering that his career numbers just aren't that good. Enjoy the 1.50 and 269 ERA+ while it lasts, because the numbers will only trend up.

    Delgado 7, good. Church 5, I like for now. Still want him 2 and Alou 5, but it breaks righty lefty up.

    Beat Nats, beat Yanks, me Happy.

    2:37 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    i'm not in your league this year.

    jake

    2:37 PM

     
    Anonymous cp said...

    It's still pretty early to draw too many conclusions. This time last season 3 of the 4 NL playoff teams (Rockies, Phillies & Cubs) were all under .500 and 6, 7 & 8 games out of first.

    Like the Marlins now, the Brewers had the best record in baseball they went 10 under .500 the rest of the way and wound up with 83 wins.

    2:52 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Holy shit Kemp for Bedard!?
    HELL FUCKING YES!
    With Joe Torre managing and options of Kemp, Ethier, Pierre, and Andruw Jones for 3 spots, who knows what he's going to do and who's going to sit.

    And besides at worst case scenario, youcould trade Bedard for an even better OF like Maggs

    TC, Schoenwess is being used as a LOOGY, i think it will last.

    3:53 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    yes, points taken, but kemp does have 9 steals

    4:11 PM

     
    Anonymous Gehoff said...

    If schoenweis is used as a LOOGY all year he could certainly keep pitching well, maybe not 1 era well though.

    4:36 PM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    I have to admit that I was against the LM trade but so far so good... the problem with this team is the offense... they are TERRIBLE hitting with men in scoring position.

    6:58 PM

     
    Anonymous tc said...

    They stretched him for 1.2 the other day, and he did well. If Willie keeps him in the LOOGY role, I agree and think he'll be better than expected.

    The wheels are coming of of Nelly Figs in the 5th right now. Jesus Flores 2-run double. Sweet irony.

    Adam Botick going Wednesday? 2-1, 3.83, 26k 16bb in AAA. Johan going Friday vs. Yanks in the BX.

    Alou = .348. When healthy, piss hands always hits.

    Davidoff says the Mets are the front-runners for Freddy Garcia. Can't hurt.

    8:50 PM

     
    Anonymous tc said...

    Joe Smith being sent down for the call-up of Bostick/Collazo.

    Sosa stays. With a 7.06 ERA. What the fuck?

    Unless someone is going on the DL and Smith will be back in a couple, this makes no sense whatsoever. Sosa is garbage, put his ass on waivers and risk losing that disaster.

    9:27 AM

     
    Anonymous brian b said...

    what website are you pulling the ops+ stat from?

    12:01 PM

     
    Anonymous tc said...

    I recant. Sosa and Figgy DFA'd ... Claudio Vargas gets the call with Collazo and J. Smith gets to stay.

    Good stuff from Omar, I approve, and I mean nothing to this team except my season ticket check.

    I just talked up Johnny Maine to a non-observant baseball fan for two hours speaking praises. Do Work.

    8:33 PM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    Thank you, Omar, for once again saving Willie from Willie. How TF does this brainless wonder survive? Sosa led the team in appearances while being absolutely horrendous. The only way to get Willie to stop using him is to get rid of him...and this wasn't the first time! I'm just glad he's gone. Unfortunately, NelFig was done, too. Good moves.

    9:15 AM

     
    Anonymous Mookie Mouse said...

    Church’s history and age suggests that he will not keep this up. Hopefully he could be a late bloomer or having a career year. But if he comes down to Earth will you guys still be gushing over him.

    5:28 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Not what we want to hear:

    From Caple today:

    Ryan (Arlington, VA): Any word on what the Mets might be looking to do with those 3 picks? think they'll keep being "good citizens" or actually take advantage of their spending power and restock the cupboards.

    Jim Callis: Word is they're going to be good citizens.

    6:37 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Willie again; Heilman again.

    Man, what a bad call to bring Heilman in tonight, Heilman really needs to be throwing mop up until he gets the no confidence demons out of his head. Boy's thinking too much.

    As for Willie, I would have kept Vargas in against the bottom of the lineup. He had thrown 97 pitches and just given up a four pitch walk to be honest, but still, tight game why go with the pitcher that is struggling most? who has the worst record with inherited runners on the whole team? Shea booed him and should have. The guy just cannot manage a bullpen.

    9:56 PM

     
    Anonymous tc said...

    Willie vs. Heilman: Who can suck more in '08?

    10:48 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    WIllie Randolph is getting fired Jimy Williams style!

    11:34 AM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    Pelf has no-no through 6. Good things happen when you throw strikes.

    The mouthpiece was holding him back!

    2:33 PM

     
    Anonymous dG said...

    Willie's depleted pen excuse makes no sense at all. if he was really worried, he should have stuck with Vargas longer. He wanted two innings from Heilman? Because Shoenweiss & Wise were out? Ummm, normally you've got four other relievers to go to.

    2:36 PM

     
    Anonymous Chris said...

    Goddamn, that one hurt.

    I've never been a Willie apologist, but now I'm officially boarding the pink slip bandwagon.

    Something's got to change. This is ugly. 3-4 against Reds & Nats at home? Fucking hell ...

    3:44 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Weave these two words into a sentence. Go ahead, try!

    Mets

    Suck

    4:18 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Well, it doesn't matter anyway, because we're all just fans and we are not in the situations making the decisions. We just can't understand all that goes on. Sometimes it's just a feeling. Isn't that right Willie?

    Hey...I think I have the FEELING you should be fired!

    -Will

    10:53 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Ken-Griffey-pays-off-his-debts-with-thousands-of?urn=mlb,82650

    One question: Why does Ken Griffey have to borrow money from Josh Fogg?

    11:23 PM

     

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