Prognosis Negative

.477 winning % and a negative run differential with a 3-7 record in their last ten games. Hey, at least there is the Wild Card, right? Not so much. 7.5 games out of the Wild Card and six teams to leap frog versus three to leapfrog over for the division. The Phillies have an OPS+ of 107 and an ERA+ of 113 versus the Mets OPS+ of 97 and ERA+ of 96.

Last year, the Mets had an OPS+ of 107 and an ERA+ of 100 versus the Phillies OPS+ of 111 and an ERA+ of 97. Ten teams have been more proficient at hitting this season with only the Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, Padres, and Nationals being worse. Nine teams have been more proficient in regards to pitching this year with only the Padres, Marlins, Astros, Nationals, Pirates, and Rockies being worse.

Basically, things are not looking good and there really is no indication that things will be getting better and there is no reason to think the Mets are any better than the Phillies at this point in time and not in the near future. To think everyone will have an awakening and become the team everyone thinks they should have been, seems a bit naive at this point and I apolgize for being optimistic in the face of such mounting evidence. It is ugly. Very ugly.

* * *

Pelfrey looked tremendous in his last start and almost become league average with it. A jump to league average may seem like something marginal, but it is not and would be very encouraging. We all forget how he has pitched so few pro innings to date and still has plenty of room for growth.

You cannot make this stuff up.

"I'm feeling like it's very sore to walk," Alou said.

The 41-year-old left fielder would like to be active when the Mets begin a three-game series in Anaheim next week - Alou could be the DH in an AL park - but also knows his team needs healthy bodies for the weekend.

"I can't hold Omar [Minaya] and Willie [Randolph] to be a player short to see if I'd be able to [DH]," Alou said.

Who cares...let him hang around to DH. His bat then will be more valuable at that point than whatever they replace him with in the short term.

Instead of winning 20, Johan will fall short. He has been getting better and better and owns a 141 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP, and 2.85 ERA. He is definitely heating up.

Sure HoJo could take the fall, but then rip out the entire staff then. The hitting is not there so the hitting coach is a natural target, but hitting is far from their only problem. Hitting, culture, pitching, etc...You name it, it is wrong.

If not Randolph, then who? People want to give him a pass and go after Omar, but why? I think Omar deserves more of a second chance than Randolph does. I mean, what has Randolph done? Won? Not so much. Turned the team around? Not so much.

I am not ready to lambast Omar just yet and everyone cannot have it both ways. Didn't everyone WANT Johan? Gomez, Guerra, Humber, and Mulvey make things look better in terms of the farm system that people have been ripping him for, but then no Johan. As for the draft, it seems he is being capped by management to stay within slotting. Sure it is his job to convince them to do otherwise and he has failed at that, but he is still being restricted.

Also, he screwed up with some of his drafting by picking college relievers too early, but signing Beltran, Pedro, Wagner, and Alou hurt them bad as well. However, three of the four were necessary and you could easily say the Alou business was a colossal waste and a pick would have been better, but not the others. Has he REALLY killed the system? Looks to me like he had little choice. You can fault him for not persuading management to say fuck slot, but I simply cannot kill him for that.

As for some trades, the Bell deal was bad as was the Lindstrom deal. The Bannister deal was a league average pitcher jettisoned off, but he would be welcome these days. If you are going to hang the season on those deals, then you are missing some greater issues. His better moves (Duaner, Maine, and Perez) far outweigh the bad ones.

Delgado was a stud and had a 161 OPS+ before they got him and had a 131 OPS+ in year #1 and now Omar is an idiot for getting him? As bad as he was in '07, he had an OPS+ of 103 which is not terrible. Not many predicted this precipitous of a fall. He depended too much on El Duque? He picked him up for peanuts. The Castillo deal was a joke for sure, but he can be an expensive back up if they want to bite the bullet.

Overall, who would have done something differently? Adding Bannister and Bell help, but I do not remember people crying too much at the time of the deals. Fact is, Omar's moves did not work out in all cases, but he has done more good than bad and many of these deals are defensible. He should be on notice, but I think he should get another chance and the easiest and best thing to do is get rid of Willie. He doesn't get it and doesn't get how to manage and effectively use his players.

What goodwill has he built up? He has proved to be an inept manager from day one and has not built up any goodwill in my eyes. I have no real solution as to who to bring him, but anyone would be better by simply being different.